More than 500 global professionals weighed in on an annual survey culminating in the DRI Trends Report for 2023.  The 2024 Predictions Report is a follow-up report that extrapolates the findings into a set of predictions and discussion points for the new year.

The Future Vision Committee (FVC) of DRI International makes ten annual predictions across a broad band of subject areas, all of which are resilience related. They follow the issues identified as important in the DRI Annual Trends Report discussed here last month. Predictions usually cover technical, social, environmental, political, economic, health, legal and regulatory issues.

The full report is available on the DRI website.  This executive summary highlights 10 key areas and provides a summary for the discussions found in the report.  The areas selected for predictions in 2024 were:

1. Inflation, interest rates and growth in western economies
2. China’s expansionist agenda
3. Public opinion on climate change measures
4. ESG and corporate blowback
5. Public awareness towards Artificial Intelligence
6. The emergence of Quantum Computing
7. Governments attempts to keep lights on
8. Excessive EU regulation discourages investment
9. Migration as a major social and political issue
10. Cyber-attacks by hostile states

1. Economy

Inflation is already falling rapidly in most developed countries as they recover from the supply side shortages at the end of the Covid-19 era. However, food and energy costs remain high and create domestic tensions which many governments are failing to tackle successfully. The main fiscal measure taken to reduce inflation is to increase central bank interest rates. Although the US economy has remained relatively robust, the situation in Europe is less positive with a significant upturn in company failures and corporate profit warnings.

2. China

 A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2024 is unlikely given the likelihood of intervention by the US and some of its allies but tensions will remain high. Many analysts doubt that China will ever launch a full-scale invasion, preferring instead to squeeze and eventually subjugate the territory by coercion, blockades, and threats.

The current turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East will further strengthen Chinese attempts to gain wider influence at the expense of the US. Domestic pressure on western governments to cut back on support for foreign wars might weaken US influence abroad and possibly NATO – a key strategic objective for China.

3. Climate Change

 The opinion of the public in countries where an independent view can be ascertained still seems largely unchanged. An extensive European study of public opinion about climate change undertaken by polling firm YouGov in mid-2023 shows a very high level of agreement across countries about the problem itself, but virtually no consensus on the changes people would be prepared to accept to their lifestyles.

The difference between general acceptance of a principle and taking individual action to help achieve it is the challenge that all democratic governments must address.

4. ESG

 Much of the reason for the take-up of ESG related policies has been from the pressure exerted on corporations by large shareholders. In 2021, a record number of shareholder proposals relating to such issues received majority support. The most successful of these proposals related to issues involving the disclosure of workforce diversity data, reports on climate change transition plans, and greenhouse gas emission targets. A growing number of companies have begun disclosing this type of data on a voluntary basis.

However, a pattern of a change of sentiment might have been emerging in banking and some state governments across much of the United States – despite corporate media campaigns claiming the contrary.

5. Artificial Intelligence

After decades of research, the term AI has suddenly reached public consciousness in a hurry. However, few understand what it really means or that different generations of AI exist. The era when AI takes over the world and replaces humans as the dominant species is still in the realm of science fiction but Elon Musk’s vision of a society in which most current jobs could be done by AI is less fanciful.

All technology is essentially neutral but the people who use it are not. Fears about how this technology will be used in practice will grow rapidly once the more specific risks are better appreciated.

6. Quantum Computing

 Quantum computers (QC) will tackle extremely complex computational tasks, and these will inevitably include attempts to decrypt cryptography protocols. It is already clear that QC will have a major impact on asymmetric or public-key encryption.  This encryption works because existing computers cannot factor large quantities of prime numbers within a workable period but QC can.

It is not an immediate problem but consider the lead-in times of replacing all current cryptography. It may have taken up to 20 years to deploy the cryptography that we use today – so early preparation for designing and implementing an alternate solution is vital.

 7. Energy Security

 According to the US based Institute of Energy Research (IER) there will be a power supply gap in the US in 2023 of 600 megawatts. However, this gap is likely to increase to 2700 megawatts in 2024 and 3300 megawatts in 2025. It is doubtful that renewables can grow quickly enough to bridge that gap and many conventional power stations are near the end of their productive life. Planning restrictions make the installation of new grid connections a costly and time-consuming process, which can take many years. There is now a serious imbalance between increasing demand and increasing supply.

 8. Regulation

 The European Union continues to expand its strong regulatory position. It has passed the Digital Services Act, covering all digital operations across the EU and on companies operating within the EU. Although the EU market is too large and profitable to be ignored, clearly global firms have choices about where they make their future investments and how much risk they are prepared to take if the possible regulatory downsides are too severe. Some feel this will benefit US and Asian firms commercially and discourage European competitors from investing in new and unproven technologies.

9. Migration

 According to the 2023 migration report from The World Bank, 184 million people or 2.3 percent of the world’s population live outside of their country of nationality. There are known drivers for this; some of it caused by war or forced displacement but much of it results from economic imbalances, diverging demographic trends, and changing weather patterns.

Naturally, the countries that provide the best opportunities for economic improvement and freedom from persecution are those places in most demand. This generally means North America, Europe, and Australia – all of whom have had or are having serious issues about the high level of mitigation.

10. State Cyber Warfare

 Cyber weaponry based on AI will evolve rapidly and create the reality or perception of high threat capability. Hostile states, terrorist organizations and organized crime will be able to use such weaponry to attack nation’s security systems and national infrastructure. These technologies will also allow widespread disinformation to be spread, creating further social dissention and division, and possibly influencing the democratic process.

I thank my DRI Colleagues for allowing me to share this extract with you. Download the free Trends and Predictions Reports from the DRI Library.

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