According to digital magazine, UnDark , “The Central U.S. is at risk for major shaking. But scientists don’t know why — or when — the next big one will strike.”
We have done much planning for the New Madrid fault for clients in that region. It seems crazy to have such a devastating quake in the middle of the country, but around 2:00 am on Dec. 16, 1811, New Madrid—a small frontier settlement of 400 people on land now located in Missouri—was jolted awake. Panicked townsfolk fled their homes as buildings collapsed and the smell of sulfur filled the air. The episode didn’t last long. But the worst was yet to come. Nearly two months later, after dozens of aftershocks and another massive quake, the fault line running directly under the town ruptured. Thirty-one-year-old resident Eliza Bryan watched in horror as the Mississippi River receded, sweeping away boats full of people. In nearby fields, geysers of sand erupted, and a rumble filled the air. In the end, the town had dropped at least 15 feet. Bryan and others spent a year and a half living in makeshift camps while they waited for the aftershocks to end. Four years later, the shocks had become less common. At last, the rattled townspeople began “to hope that ere long they will entirely cease,” Bryan wrote in a letter.
USGS released a report in December 2023 detailing the risk of dangerous earthquakes nationwide. As expected on the hazard map, deep red risk lines run through California and Alaska. But the map also sports a big bull’s eye in the middle of the country—right over New Madrid.
The USGS estimates that the region has a 25 to 40% chance of a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the next 50 years and as much as a 10% chance of a repeat of the 1811-1812 sequence. While the risk is much lower compared to California, experts say that the New Madrid region suffers from inadequate building codes and infrastructure regarding earthquake resistance. In this seismic splash zone are millions living across five states—mainly in Tennessee and Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, and Arkansas—including two major cities, Memphis and St. Louis. Mississippi, Alabama, and Indiana have also been noted as places of concern. In response to the potential for calamity, geologists have learned much about this odd earthquake hotspot over the last few decades.
Yet one mystery has persisted: why earthquakes even happen here in the first place.
Read more on Undark, a non-profit, editorially independent digital magazine exploring the intersection of science and society.
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