The scale of the damage after the recent floods in Germany surprised researchers, with the effects being far worse than what was predicted by the existing models, and opening up questions as to whether they sufficiently accounted for certain conditions that are uncommon in Central Europe, according to an article in Phys.org. Instead, researchers may need to look to how these events are modelled outside of Europe. “The flood in the valleys of the Eifel was far more violent, faster and more unpredictable than we had previously assumed for such an event in the center of Europe,” said Michael Dietze, PostDoc in the Geomorphology Section at GFZ and the Department of Geography at the University of Bonn to Phys.org.
The effects that led to this gap between simulations and reality are numerous, with points of particular concern being:
- The complete saturation of the soil, preventing water from entering it, and causing all of it to be concentrated in channels that quickly flooded valleys.
- The erosive effects of the water, which dug up dead wood and sediment, which helped to produce blockages at bridges and other choke points.
- Damage to dams, as their spillways were unable to drain water fast enough to prevent erosion.
“As climate change continues, we may encounter precipitation events like the one on 14 July 2021 quite frequently,” said Dietze to Phys.org. “Therefore, research must now begin to understand precipitation-induced floods not only as a phenomenon of too much fast-flowing water. We also have to include the associated self-reinforcing effects, some of which are also favored by climate change.”
Source:
https://phys.org/news/2021-09-disaster-western-germany-science.html
