When preparing for the future, it is often beneficial to think about the worst which could happen. For Sandia National Laboratories, much of their work is centered around this principal, as they work to model the effects of an assortment of disasters. “Before something bad happens, we provide a better understanding of how to prevent those things or how to mitigate them when they do occur,” says Kevin Stamber, head of the Sandia critical infrastructure analysis team, of their team’s purpose,
While this work is often hypothetical in nature, investigating what could happen were an oil spill to occur in certain areas, or a major earthquake to strike a city, Sandia’s simulations are also used to project the fallout from known events, such as modeling the effects after production at a California refinery was disrupted.
These simulations draw on a wide assortment of resources, taking advantage of expertise within fields, machine learning, and similarities other known events to draw conclusions, or even provide a range of possible outcomes. While not guaranteed to be accurate – as Andrew Skates, from the modelling firm Sandtable, notes, “You can never predict exactly what’s going to happen” – they can help to inform and prepare.
Source:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200707-how-we-can-prepare-for-disaster
