The earthquake that hit Turkey has reminded people of the power of the earth. A devastating event, its impact was also amplified by the inherent unpredictability. Compared to other natural disasters like hurricanes or volcanic eruptions, where scientists can track development and progress, the likeliness of an earthquake is instead only estimated in more general terms, where chances are described as percentages over multi-year periods for broad magnitudes of events, according to an article in The Atlantic.
“Predominantly a retrospective science, using data from sometimes-devastating temblors to incrementally improve our understanding of faults and their tectonic masters. The only certainty in seismology, for now, is that big quakes will continue to kill people for as long as our species exists. This week’s tragedy will be mirrored, over and over again, in Turkey, in Syria, and all over the world,” writes volcanologist Robin George Andrews in The Atlantic.
Understanding of earthquakes, however, is improving, as researchers are better able to map out fault lines, and process information from areas that are properly instrumented. And while that may not necessarily help with short term predictions, it will help to improve both understanding of what areas are under threat, and how homes and offices can be built to better withstand the sort of seismic events these areas are likely to encounter.
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