Recent research, published in Science Advances, has indicated it may be possible to determine the final magnitude of an earthquake based on the information detected during the earthquake’s first ten to fifteen seconds of activity, potentially allowing more rapid warnings to those in the area of effect.
Diego Melgar, assistance professor of seismology at the University of Oregon, co-author of the research with Gavin P. Hayes of the United States Geological Survey, says this finding was noted while gathering information from quake databases for the purpose of simulating large quakes. “And along the way we just stumbled upon something interesting,” Melgar told Science Advances.
The research involved reviewing data recorded by seismometers during a set of 3,000 earthquakes, showing the amount of energy released over time while the quakes were occurring, alongside data from GPS stations. From this review, it was observed that during the initial phases of an earthquake, the data tends to be chaotic, before showing the released energy organizing into a pulse, which moves in a ring-shape outward from the source. From the research, the finding is that the size of this initial pulse may be related to the ultimate magnitude of the earthquake, allowing for prediction of the final magnitude while the quake is still in its early phases.
Melgar notes the model still has limitations, as data on powerful quakes with magnitudes above 8.5 are less common, resulting in a more limited data set. Melgar also observed the danger of assuming average behaviors for earthquakes, noting “any individual earthquake still has a personality.”
Source:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/29/science/earthquakes-detection-richter-scale.html
